Here are our AFL picks for Sunday 23 August 2026. Our model likes 6 bets here. The one it likes most is West Coast Eagles vs Hawthorn Hawks: Over 33.5 team_totals_h1, priced at -122 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
West Coast Eagles vs Hawthorn Hawks: Over 33.5 team_totals_h1 (-122)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
When the West Coast Eagles take on the Hawthorn Hawks at Optus Stadium, the stage is set for a high-scoring affair. The Eagles have been firing on all cylinders, especially at home, with an average of 23.2 shots at goal and 11.6 target goals per game in their last five home matches. Their forward line efficiency has been impressive, notching up an average of 78.2 points in these games. On the flip side, the Hawks have been leaking points on the road, conceding an average of 73.4 points in their last five away games. With the Eagles hungry for goals and the Hawks vulnerable in defense, the Over 33.5 in the Team Totals H1 market for the West Coast Eagles looks like a solid play. Expect the Eagles to come out swinging and light up the scoreboard early on.
West Coast Eagles vs Hawthorn Hawks: Over 16.5 team_totals_q1 (-114)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Alright, footy punters, let's dive into this West Coast Eagles versus Hawthorn Hawks clash at Optus Stadium. The Eagles have been soaring high in their last five home games, averaging a solid 51.2 Inside50s and 23.2 Shotsatgoal. Their offensive prowess is evident, averaging 11.6 Target Goals and 78.2 Points For per game. Facing them is a Hawthorn side that has been leaky on the road, conceding an average of 73.4 Points Against in their last five away games and 75.2 overall. With the Eagles firing on all cylinders and Hawthorn's defense showing some cracks, backing the Eagles to go Over 16.5 points in the first quarter looks like a smart play. Expect West Coast to come out firing and snag an early lead as they aim to dominate from the first bounce.
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Alright, footy punters, let's dissect this clash between Essendon and Port Adelaide at Marvel Stadium. Essendon's recent form at home shows they're firing shots at goal but struggling to convert, averaging 20 shots per game but nabbing just under 10 goals on average. Their points tally of 65.8 at home reflects this inefficiency. On the flip side, Port Adelaide's defense on the road has been leaky, conceding an average of 103.6 points per game and a whopping 118.4 overall. When you pit Essendon's attacking woes against Port's defensive generosity, it paints a picture of a low-scoring affair in the first half. With a line set at 46.5, the under for Essendon in the Team Totals H1 market looks like a smart play here. Expect a grind early on as Essendon battles to convert opportunities and Port Adelaide tries to shore up their leaky defense.
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Alright footy fans, let's dive into why backing the Melbourne Demons at -3.5 against the Carlton Blues is a savvy move. The Demons come into this clash with a spring in their step, boasting a solid recent record and showing prowess in finding the big sticks. Melbourne has been racking up the goals, displaying an impressive ability to convert their shots on goal into scoring opportunities. Their forward line has been firing on all cylinders, consistently splitting the middle with precision. On the flip side, Carlton has struggled defensively, leaking points and failing to contain opposition forward thrusts. With Melbourne's ability to penetrate inside 50 and capitalize on their chances, the Blues could find themselves under immense pressure. Considering these recent trends, the Demons look primed to cover the -3.5 spread and snag a crucial win.
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Alright, footy fans, let's dissect this upcoming clash between the Sydney Swans and the North Melbourne Kangaroos at the SCG. The Swans have been flying high at home, averaging a hefty 117.8 points per game over their last five matches in Sydney. Their attack is firing on all cylinders, with an average of 34.6 shots at goal and 17.8 target goals. However, don't count out the Kangaroos just yet. Despite their recent struggles on the road, they've been keeping games tight, with an average margin of just 1 point in their last five away games. With their defensive tenacity, conceding only 74.4 points on average, and the ability to stay within touching distance, backing the Kangaroos at +2.5 on the spread seems like a shrewd move in what could be a closely contested battle.
Essendon Bombers vs Port Adelaide Power: Under 22.5 team_totals_q1 (-118)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Looking at the Essendon Bombers hosting the Port Adelaide Power at Marvel Stadium, the data sets the stage for an intriguing matchup. The Bombers have been a force at home, averaging around 46.8 Inside50s and 20 Shotsatgoal in their last 5 home games. However, their conversion rate has been a bit shaky, only bagging 9.8 goals on average. On the other side, Port Adelaide has been leaky on the road, conceding an average of 103.6 points in their last 5 away games. This defensive vulnerability could play into the Bombers' hands. With Essendon looking to exploit Port's defensive woes and their own slightly inconsistent scoring, the Under 22.5 for the Bombers' Q1 team total appears to be a prudent bet worth considering.
That is the model's read on today's AFL card. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.
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